True Religion is in a very interesting position. I invested in this stock in late 2005 to early 2006 based on solid fundamentals and heavy buying volume. I got out in 2006 before I went abroad for a year but have always kept an eye on this stock. What is so interesting is that this stock was last seen with a short interest of 60-70% of its total float. What I don’t understand is this company has raised guidance again and again. They did it once in May, and now again. Even after raising guidance they posted earnings of 39 cents, beating street estimates of 32 cents and beating revenue estimates by 14 million. The company has year over year earnings increase of 86% and a projected 5 year growth rate of 20%. TRLG also opened up its NYC store in union square and will have 5 new stores by the end of this year. Ratio wise, ROE and Profit margin are ridiculously good. So why is everyone short on this stock? Previous articles have mentioned how this stock is in perfect position for a short squeeze. They were right. The stock has jumped to 28 from 23 when the articles were written. I don’t have direct numbers on how many people got squeezed out but according to shortsqueeze.com there are still 10,505,300 shares short, 66% of the float. What the hell do you guys all know that I don’t? The PE ratio of 23.40 is also lower than most high-end retailers who aren’t posting solid numbers. I think this will be squeezed some more but TRLG just got downgraded for hell knows why and is down 5% afterhours. Buying opp?

The situation at Six Flags just keeps looking more grim. Aside from the company blaming the weather for their misfortunes, there are many other negatives surrounding the second largest theme park. Six Flags has not turned in a profit in 10 years and has 2 billion in debt. Their bonds have been downgraded to just above junk bond status and they have recently suspended their dividends.
Also, the management just seems to be very… shady. How do you not mention EPS? That’s basically all we care about in the end isn’t it? Also, the management keeps saying they have a ample amount of cash but in reality, they can’t even cover payments to preferred shareholders that are due next year.
Lastly, I go to amusement parks once in a while and they are a total rip off. But wait… shouldn’t this be good for Six Flags. I’m spending 5 bucks on a bottle of coke and shooting basketballs at a tiny rim for 10 dollars trying to win a teddy bear. By the way, Six Flags shares are cheaper than anything you can get at the amusement park, but probably still have less value.

I don’t know if there are shares to short. Also, they tried to find a buyer to no avail so I don’t think this will come back to bite.

I have been following an awesome site that gives quality data about Chinese companies, especially ones listed in America. The site is China Analyst.

I am across an informative post showing the amount of short interest in Chinese stocks. Below are the top 25, for the other 75, visit the site above.

Reviewing the insurance quotes should be mandatory before anyone signs in a life insurance or even a health insurance since that is equally important. In this regard dental insurance gets rebuffed the most. And just because pet insurance concerns your pet, that does not mean it should be dealt with in a minor fashion.

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I put together a list of solar companies to see how these companies traded in sync with each other and to also track the performace of solar in the past 6 months. Below are the charts of 10 solar companies and TAN, the solar fund. With the exception of First Solar, which recently released higher than expected earnings and a good outlook, the rest of the solar stocks have traded similarly in the past 6 months. 4 of the companies are trading higher than 6 months ago with FSLR leading the way up over 30% while 6 companies are trading lower with Suntech retracing the most (30%+). All stocks seem to have traded higher in May and June and significantly lower after that. On the other hand if you had bought TAN when it first released you are down about 15%. I’m not going to recommend solar right now as oil prices are decreasing however I wanted to point out something about solar. FSLR is widely regarded as the market leader, usually the market leader will pull the other companies higher and lower respectively but in this case FSLR is trading in its own pattern, one that is consolidating sideways for the past 2 months.

Note also that TAN has only been out 4 months so I can’t really compare it to the 6 month charts
What do you guys think of solar trading similarily with each other?

I usually have a gut feeling about consumer electronics probably due to the fact that I am of the generation that grew up with DSL, laptops and mp3 players. My gut feeling with stand alone GPS devices is that in a couple of years, only ones that are built in to your car will exist, and they will pretty standard. For Garmin, this is not good news. These units are only going to get cheaper which will cut margins even more and integrated with phones which have already started integrating mp3 players. Apple and some other companies have been doing this already.

So what is Garmin trying to do now? The Nuvifone. THE NUVIFONE HAS THIS AND THAT BLAH BLAH. Come on, can it really compete with the IPhone. Does it really have any features that will make someone say “you know what, go to hell iPhone, I’m buying the NUVIFONE!!”. No. Tim Weidman wrote that the coolest feature is that you can talk on the phone and still get directions. WOW! How about just saying hold on or when the voice command comes on just ignore your phone or even better, just look at where you need to turn with your eyes.

Anyway, those are just my impressions, if I didn’t back this piece up with any facts about why I think Garmin is done, there would be no credibility.

1. Garmin is the leading portable GPS unit maker (56% market share), but its margins are slimming every single quarter (down 15%). The CEO thinks units prices will drop another 20% this year

2. SiRF Technology (SIRF), a GPS chip maker, is cutting jobs because of softening consumer demand

3. Delayed Nuvifone. Putting your eggs in one basket and then delaying the release to ‘sometime’ in the first half of 2009 isn’t going to cut it. Steven Halpern must be going OOPs as he released an article yesterday praising the Nuvifone and rated the stock a buy.

4. Revised revenues for 2008 see 3.9 billion instead of 4.5. Eps down to 4.13 from 4.40. COGS and SG&A have also increased by more than 25% each.

Should you short this ?? I think so in the long run, this is a short. In the short run… this just bonked 20%, it may recover a little with all the indicators pointing at oversold.